The Rise of the Intention Economy: AI Tools That Could Predi

[francolkeryt]

In the near future, AI assistants may be able to predict and shape our decisions at an early stage, selling these developing "intentions" in real-time to companies that can address our needs—before we even recognize we've made a choice.

This prediction comes from AI ethicists at the University of Cambridge, who warn of the rise of a "lucrative yet troubling new marketplace for digital signals of intent," encompassing everything from buying movie tickets to voting in elections. They refer to this emerging phenomenon as the "intention economy."

Researchers from Cambridge's Leverhulme Center for the Future of Intelligence (LCFI) argue that the rise of generative AI and growing familiarity with chatbots opens a new realm of "persuasive technologies," which is already being hinted at in announcements from major tech companies.

These "anthropomorphic" AI agents—ranging from chatbot assistants to digital tutors and virtual companions—could gain access to vast amounts of personal psychological and behavioral data, often collected through informal, conversational dialogues.

By combining knowledge of our online activities with the ability to intuitively connect with us, mimicking personalities and predicting desired responses, this AI could build trust and understanding on a scale that enables large-scale social manipulation, say the researchers.

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Dr. Yaqub Chaudhary, a visiting scholar at LCFI, emphasizes, "Tremendous resources are being expended to position AI assistants in every area of life, which should raise the question of whose interests and purposes these so-called assistants are designed to serve."

"People’s words, the way they speak, and the inferences made in real-time are far more intimate than simply tracking online interactions," he added.

Researchers caution that AI tools are already being developed to elicit, infer, collect, record, understand, forecast, and ultimately manipulate human plans and desires.

Dr. Jonnie Penn, a technology historian from LCFI, explains, "For decades, attention has been the currency of the internet. Sharing your attention with platforms like Facebook and Instagram drove the online economy."

"Without regulation, the intention economy will treat your motivations as the new currency. It will become a gold rush for those who target, manipulate, and sell human intentions."

The researchers suggest that the intention economy will mirror the attention economy "plotted in time," using user behavior, communication style, and preferences to predict and shape future choices.

"While some intentions are short-lived, identifying and targeting persistent intentions will be highly profitable for advertisers," Chaudhary says.

In this new economy, Large Language Models (LLMs) could be used to analyze a user’s cadence, politics, vocabulary, gender, and even preferences for flattery or persuasion. This data would be linked to bidding networks to maximize the likelihood of achieving a desired outcome, such as selling a movie ticket ("You mentioned feeling stressed, would you like me to book that movie ticket we talked about?").

The research team suggests that conversations could be subtly steered to serve the interests of specific platforms, advertisers, businesses, or even political groups.

Although the intention economy remains a theoretical concept, the researchers have identified early signs of this trend in recent tech developments. These include OpenAI’s call for "data that expresses human intention… across any language, topic, and format," as well as statements from Shopify’s product director about using chatbots to "explicitly get the user's intent."